World holidays calendar - InstaForex

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Reminder: Market-timing questions are banned. Please report them. Threads will be removed.

As the news-reels about Brexit and deals (or lack there-of) continue to roll on, a timely reminder is needed that market timing questions are banned on this subreddit.
We have already spent the time and effort to write a wiki article explaining why, which I will copy below for your convenience.
For the avoidance of doubt, the following are examples of market timing questions that have been removed in the last few days:
This is currently the most-removed topic of discussion. Please continue to be vigilant and report rule-breaking threads. If in doubt, report them anyway and the mods can decide.
Thanks!

Wiki

Exchange Rate Questions

Since Brexit (and before but less frequently) we have had a slew of questions asking when the right time to exchange money to/from USD/CAD/EUR etc.
It is impossible to provide a meaningful answer to this. The exchange rate could get better, or worse, or neither. Nobody has a crystal ball of knows enough to predict the changes an hour, day, month, or year ahead.
For this reason, the mods have taken the decision to ban these questions, and threads will be locked and/or removed. Please refer to Rule 2 in the rules.
Regular poster pflurklurk summarised the issues concisely:
Essentially you can't predict the rate, so really it is up to your risk tolerance. You can transfer it now to ensure you have the sufficient number of pounds to satisfy your liability, or you can take a gamble (or a mixture of both by making multiple transfers).
Martin Lewis (of Moneysavingexpert fame) had the following to say (see his full blog here) This was before Brexit but the points are all still valid:
Ask yourself what rate is good for you?
Whatever happens to the euro rate, the future is out of your control. So forget trying to guess the market and instead ask yourself:
‘Would I be happy to get a rate of €1.26 for my holiday money…?’
If your answer is: “It’s a decent rate, I could have a reasonable holiday on that, and my real fear is it getting worse because that’d make things unaffordable” – then go safe and buy now. However if you do that and the pound strengthens, and in hindsight you’d have been better off waiting, don’t let the bitterness ruin your holiday.
For those stuck on what to do, there are a couple of halfway houses. To hedge your bets, simply buy half of what you’ll need now (using the methods below) and leave half until after the referendum. For another possible alternative, see the trick I’ve added at the end of this blog. (Or see the trick below for another halfway house.)
Personally I don’t do speculation. Instead, I just ensure I always get the best rates on the day.
The easy way to do this is with bureau busting, specialist travel credit cards. The two top picks right now are Halifax Clarity and Creation Everyday, which give near perfect exchange rates in every country, so just pocketing one means you know you’re getting a good deal. Though you do need to pay them off IN FULL each month to minimise interest.
Then if you’re really cool, funky and, ahem, down with the kids, like me, you can put them in your overseas wallet.
Another article here:

Market Timing Questions

Following major world events we have historically had a flurry of questions asking if this is a good/bad time to invest/disinvest/change allocations. The answer, as above, is that nobody knows.
When it comes to planning your personal finances and investing, you should remember this proverb:
The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second best time is now.
For a great resource on why market timing is A Bad Idea, there is a great Wiki page on Bogleheads
If that doesn't convince you, have a look at the CBS article "The Smartest Things Ever Said About Market Timing"
Here are some choice excerpts:
Peter Lynch, one-time Wall Street darling:
"I can't recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes' annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you'd think somebody would have made billions by doing it."
Warren Buffett, the sage of Omaha:
"We continue to make more money when snoring than when active."
"The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good."
submitted by q_pop to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

How I use Volatility to my advantage (UK US open, late US etc)

[Only applies to M30 and lower]
What is volatility?
Volatility is the degree of variation in price of a given asset on a defined timeframe. When price moves quickly, market volatility increases. When price consolidates, market volatility decreases (simple definition). It is like the speedometer in our cars.
I usually add an Average True Range (ATR) on my charts to gauge approximately market volatility or market nervousness. However, it is not necessary, when you look at a chart you are able to tell if price is spiking, trending or consolidating.
Volatility is part of any strategy. It gives an expectancy toward future price action. In general, when market volatility is low, we expect significant support and resistance levels to hold price in a range. And when market volatility is high, we expect price to break these levels.
Volatility patterns
Fortunately, in the Forex market, daily volatility is predictable. We tend to see volatility peaks around major markets openings, which are the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the Japanese Exchange. At the late hours of these markets, volatility tends to decrease.
These fundamental patterns are the most exploitable patterns in the Forex market. Yes, at least more exploitable than deceitful technical signals you are looking for. And they happen almost every day. However, there are exceptions. For example, we do not expect volatility peak to happen when countries of these big markets are on bank holiday.
EURUSD hourly volatility
The chart above shows the 4-weeks hourly volatility for the EUUSD pair. It is the average in pip of the difference between the highest and the lowest price of each hour of the day, over four weeks. Each bar represents the average in hourly range over four weeks.
There are two major peaks corresponding to the LSE and the NYSE openings.
Since the EUUSD is the most traded pair, we consider its volatility as "market volatility". In fact, the hourly volatility chart of the other pairs gives approximately the same pattern.
USDCAD hourly volatility
These charts were taken in May 2016. Take a look at Mataf.net’s volatility tool and type four (for four weeks) in the entry box. You will see approximately this same pattern in hourly volatility, with the two major peaks (UK and US opens) and decreasing volatility starting from the mid-US session. (Currently the pattern is disturbed by the brexit monster volatility, it will become clear again within few weeks)
We also have decreased volatility during the Asian session when there is no major news release coming from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) or the Bank Of Japan (BOJ).
Asian sessions
These charts tell us market volatility is predictable. This leads us to define two principles:
First Principle: Around major markets openings (active time), market volatility tends to surge. We expect to see range breakouts, spikes or rallies. It is the best time to trade breakouts i.e., buying new highs and selling new lows.
Second Principle: During the late hours of major markets sessions and when major markets are closed (quiet time), market volatility tends to decrease considerably. We expect to see trading range or congestion in price action. It is the best time to range-trade i.e., buying the lows and selling the highs.
principles
Any trading strategy or system has to adapt to these variations in volatility to perform over time. If you are struggling with a particular strategy, maybe you are ignoring these changes in volatility.
How volatility patterns can help in improving your trading?
One cannot apply a strategy any time and expect to be profitable. When we simulate an automated and intraday trading system over three months without time filtering, we will notice the system is only profitable at certain hours of the day. This simply reflects intraday volatility variations.
You have to determine if your trading strategy is a trend following method or a range trading one.
If your strategy is a trend following approach, you will want to only trade around major markets openings to maximize profits. Otherwise, you will tend to give back profits as price slows down in the mid-session and market volatility decrease.
If your strategy is a range trading or reversal approach, you will want to only trade during quiet market time and avoid trading around market openings or around news releases.
Less trades maximize profits. Most of my trading sessions last less than one hour.
I made a portable document of this.
submitted by alm_hd to Forex [link] [comments]

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